Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Spring Creek Predictions
Who's got the talent and primed to win in Week 8 at Spring Creek? The "This-Week" rankings look at the rider's perceived ability (aka "true talent") as well as injuries and the rider's history at the upcoming track.
Here are the predictions for the 450 class this weekend:
Again this week, Ken Roczen leads with a fairly large gap over Eli Tomac. The final podium spot has a big gap behind Tomac, with Justin Barcia in 3rd. Trey Canard is back from injury, and expected to compete with Marvin Musquin for the 4th spot. Before the Track Adjustment, Musquin had a decent lead over Canard, but Canard's 450 history at Spring Creek is a 2nd and a 4th, so his Track Adjustment moves him into 4th over Musquin. I don't love that call for Canard, considering he's coming back after a big layoff -- if he's nearly 100%, then great, but if he's rusty then of course 4th is quite a stretch.
No big surprises in there, but Heath Harrison comes in at #13 and moves up to 11th with his Track Adjustment. At Spring Creek he's finished 19th and 20th in 2014 and 2015 while he's finished an average of 25th everywhere else.
James Stewart and Dean Wilson also return this week. Wilson is slotted in 9th, but perhaps the injury adjustment isn't severe enough for someone like him who's racing his first moto in 5 months. Stewart is projected at 16th after the injury and track adjustments. As I've said before with Stewart, this ranking is not necessarily the most likely outcome, it's the average of the range of possibilities. If Stewart is Top 10 in one moto (seems likely) but DNF's the second (also seems likely), then he ends up somewhere around 16th, I imagine. The variance is so high with him that the actual prediction itself is very unlikely to happen.
Here are the predictions for the 250 class at Spring Creek:
In the 250's, Cooper Webb has a big lead over Jeremy Martin, with Aaron Plessinger, Austin Forkner, and Joey Savatgy essentially tied for 3rd. After the Track Adjustment, Savatgy moves up into the 3rd spot with a bit of a gap over Plessinger and Forkner. Savatgy finished 7th in 2014 and 3rd in 2015 at Spring Creek, compared to an average of 10th everywhere else. Forkner doesn't have any history at Spring Creek, and Plessinger has only one pro race, where he finished 6th--which is pretty solid but not that different from his average finish of just worse than 7th at other tracks.
So, not exactly controversial podium picks in either class: Roczen, Tomac, then Barcia in the 450's and Webb, JMart, then Savatgy in the 250's. Nevertheless, it will hopefully be an exciting week as Tomac tries to re-create his success from last week at Southwick, and a whole cast of 250 riders have a legit shot at #1 this week.