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Short Track: St. Louis "This-Week" Predictions Review

How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 14 in St. Louis?  Only 4 were right on, with an additional 3 off by just 1 spot:

The predictions were not quite as accurate for St. Louis as they were for the prior two weeks, it doesn't seem.  Especially down the table, though the top six were all very close, except for Bogle sneaking into 4th

1 through 3 -- Dungey / Roczen / Anderson were all correct.
4 -- Justin Bogle, predicted 15th, surprised with his best finish, though it was
noted in the recap how he was aided by very poor starts from several riders, as well as a crash from Brayton and from Musquin.
5 -- Trey Canard, predicted 4th, off by 1 spot.
6 -- Chad Reed, was correctly predicted in 6th.
7 -- Eli Tomac, predicted 5th, and his projection was lowered because of his recent slump, but he still did not live up to the reduced expectation.
8 -- Josh Grant, predicted 12th, which is off by 4 spots but a bit excusable since he's got a short track record this season and is a bit of an enigma to begin with.
9 -- Justin Brayton, predicted 9th, may have been different had Anderson not checked him off the track, but he also was not
running quite as fast as the others in the top half (granted, this was mostly after the crash).

10 -- Mike Alessi, predicted 17th, but he keeps putting up results right in the middle of the table.  That's considerably better than he's done at any point in 450 Supercross, other than 2012, when he averaged just better than 9th place (topped out with two 4th place finishes that season).   Since there's several years of data, the numbers aren't going to change much based on four races, certainly not up to a 10th place-ish projection, and especially because he's still averaged just better than 14th place in 2016.  Something to keep in mind if you're using this to augment MX fantasy predictions.
11 through 14 -- Justin Barcia / Blake Baggett / Jake Weimer / Broc Tickle each were 3 spots off their predictions.   I figure Barcia and Tickle are still not 100% back and the injury adjustment was too low.  Baggett never really got going, which was in stark contrast to last week.  Weimer did better than his prediction, and that's even after he fell to the back of the pack at the start of the race.
15 -- Marvin Musquin, predicted 7th, had two crashes, probably having something to do with riding with his wrist not fully healed.
16 -- Weston Peick, predicted 14th, off by 2 spots.
17 -- Vince Friese, predicted 16th, off by 1 spot.
18 -- Christophe Pourcel, predicted 13th, was running with a not-100%-healed neck injury, so falling back from his previous results isn't too unexpected.
19 through 22 were Wey / Schmidt / Ray / J.Alessi, who didn't make the predictions.

As for the Location Adjustment, there were only two of any significance, and they were still fairly minor.  And, they were related to two guys who are likely still recovering from injury -- Justin Barcia and Broc Tickle -- so that just throws another variable into the mix:

Barcia was expected to perform slightly better in St. Louis compared to the typical location, but he performed worse.  Tickle was expected to perform slightly worse in St. Louis, and he did perform worse.  But the adjustments are very small, and the sample size was 2, so (
like last week), hard to draw much from that.

Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47   :::   As always – Feedback welcomed

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