2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update after Anaheim 1
The prediction is back! Not a lot of changes compared to the pre-season prediction, but there’s only been one race, so... The biggest changes you could probably guess
(i.e., Jason Anderson made a huge leap), but we break down the major changes below. (Last week’s prediction and the change from
last week are on the right.)
Still
at the top
Ryan Dungey is still projected with a comfortable lead
(no surprise) and Ken Roczen, Trey Canard, Eli Tomac follow in that order, same
as with the original prediction. Out of
those four, the biggest worry for me is Canard who started strong at A1 and then
faded (promising times before the Main Event, though) -- in San Diego will he look more like the rider we predicted at #3 for the season, or will he end up on the outside looking in at
Dungey/Roczen/Tomac/Seely and even Anderson?
Coming
up
Cole Seely made up significant ground in terms of
ranking—also no big surprise based on his good A1 result—but his rise was due as much from others’ falling
down as his good performance (see Barcia, Musquin, and Stewart below). From a projection standpoint, the farther
away Seely gets from his mediocre 2012 season, the more it will help his
ranking.
Too
harsh?
Chad Reed dropped a couple spots despite finishing a not-too-bad 6th. At second glance, no, it’s not too harsh. On one
hand, Seely and Anderson (who moved ahead of Reed) really impressed, while on the other, as Reed gets
away from his impressive 2012 and 2014 seasons, his projection will keep sagging -- unless he
manages more finishes around the top 5.
Not
harsh enough?
Barcia dropped only two spots despite a #15
finish. One race just wasn’t enough to
drastically affect his ranking, and with the riders right below him having problems and unable to move ahead (Marvin
Musquin and James Stewart), the rest of the pack (Davi
Millsaps, Broc Tickle, Blake Baggett, Justin Brayton, Dean Wilson) narrowed the
gap but didn’t quite catch all the way up.
Smaller
story
Marvin Musquin was relatively well-liked by the
numbers but subject to high variance due to his lack of a long history in
450SX. His debut for 2016 was lackluster,
and without the long history, this lackluster result weighs heavily on his updated
prediction. If he finishes in the top 10
in San Diego, then he’ll be right back up around 7th/8th/9th, about where he was
initially predicted. Whatever the case, I
would guess his ranking fluctuates more than most during the season.
The
big story
James Stewart’s DNF from the wreck and concussion
caused his projected ranking to fall precipitously, down to 18th. If the original prediction of 8th
for Stewart seemed low to you, this new prediction must seem
REALLY low. But, Stewart’s in a hole in
terms of points since he’s already 24 behind Dungey and the injury might be
evidence that Stewart will have trouble staying healthy – so maybe a ranking in
the low teens isn’t that far-fetched.
Again, let’s hope for the best because a season with JS7 vying for #1 is
a lot more fun than one with him sidelined by injury or too far off the points
lead to legitimately contend. If Stewart
makes a podium in San Diego (assuming he’s cleared as healthy to race), he’d be
right back in the predictions mix, probably in the top 5 – which is what his
qualifying and heat results from A1 suggest he could be.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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