Share on Facebook submit to reddit
LinkedIn Share

Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 4

Heading into Muddy Creek in Tennessee, what's new with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions?  Ken Roczen extends his lead as injuries continue to take their toll on the 450 class.  


With Trey Canard and Jason Anderson joining Ryan Dungey on the long-term injury list, a whole bunch of riders gain several spots.

After taking into account riders' injury history, Broc Tickle moves up to 6th overall, which may seem a bit high, but with all the injuries it could be possible.  Both projections together:


Despite his good racing and large lead in points, the numbers still don't trust Joey Savatgy to finish as #1.  Jeremy Martin is still expected to retake the lead, with Cooper Webb taking 2nd.  Austin Forkner has moved into 5th, right in front of Alex Martin, whose surprising success has still not moved him up into the Top 5 of the projections.  Alex Martin has such a long track record that is much worse than how good he's been to open the season.

After factoring in the injury projections, Aaron Plessinger moves into podium position based on his near-perfect history with for avoiding injury:

The 250 injury and non-injury predictions together:

Who's got the talent and primed to win this week at Muddy Creek?  The "This-Week" rankings look at the rider's perceived talent (aka "true talent") as well as injuries and the rider's history at the upcoming track.

Here are the predictions for the 450 class this weekend:

A few major track adjustments are in there -- Weston Peick is expected to do 4 points better at Muddy Creek, and Kyle Chisholm is supposed to do 3 points better, compared to riding elsewhere.

Here are the predictions for the 250 class at Muddy Creek:

One major Track Adjustment, for Kyle Cunningham, who is supposed to do nearly 6 points better at Muddy Creek compared to elsewhere.

Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47   :::   As always – Feedback welcomed

Previous: 2016 Pro MX Week 4 - By-The-Numbers Recap: High Point  |  Back to Blog  |  Next: 2016 Pro MX Week 5 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Muddy Creek