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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 5

Heading into RedBud, what's new with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions?  Ken Roczen slightly extends his lead in the 450 class despite Eli Tomac's close finishes (relatively) last week at Muddy Creek.  


Justin Barcia remains in 3rd even though he trails Marvin Musquin in points won so far -- in terms of pure speed, Barcia has been considerably faster than Musquin, which is driving that prediction.  Cole Seely's injury--now reported that he may miss the entire season--severely drops his standing in the prediction.  As a result, Broc Tickle moves up an additional spot, also passing Christophe Pourcel.  As Trey Canard's injury drags on, he also falls in the projected standings.  Ben LaMay enters the rankings at #20, with Cole Martinez and Noah McConahy just missing the Top 20.

After taking into account riders' injury history, Justin Brayton moves up a couple spots while Justin Bogle falls.  Both projections together:


Another shakeup in the 250 predictions, with Cooper Webb now holding a substantial lead over both Jeremy Martin and Joey Savatgy:

The rankings just can't quit Aaron Plessinger, even as he sits only 7th in points won so far.  Mitchell Oldenburg moves up while Mitchell Harrison moves down -- Oldenburg has had better raw speed so far.

After factoring in the injury projections, Jordon Smith has the most improvement, partly because Adam Cianciarulo drops due to a recent history of missing races due to injury:

The 250 injury and non-injury predictions together:

Who's got the talent and primed to win this week at RedBud?  The "This-Week" rankings look at the rider's perceived talent (aka "true talent") as well as injuries and the rider's history at the upcoming track.

Here are the predictions for the 450 class this weekend:

Not surprisingly, there's a big gap after Roczen and Tomac at #1 and #2.  Barcia, Baggett, Musquin, and Tickle lag behind in a pack of several riders within about 10 points.

One major track adjustment is in there, and a few minor ones.  Roczen, Barcia, Tickle, James Stewart (if he's back this week [Edit: apparently he is still out, waiting for the birth of his baby]), and Andrew Short have done well at RedBud, but not enough to move the needle by that much.  Justin Brayton, though, has finished 6th (on average, in 8 motos) at RedBud compared to 13th everywhere else.  That means he jumps up from being predicted 19th to being 13th.

Here are the predictions for the 250 class at RedBud:

[Edit: Charboneau is still out, so ignore him in the above.  Marshall Weltin would fill in the gap at #20.]

Two minor Track Adjustments, for Kyle Cunningham and Kyle Peters, who get a slight bump.  Also for Savatgy, who gets a demotion of one spot as his Track Adjustment is negative -- Savatgy has been 13th at RedBud in 2 tries (4 motos) compared to 10th everywhere else, which produces a small-but-not-THAT-small adjustment.  Webb, who was predicted to finish 1st this week prior to any of the adjustments, gets dinged for the Injury Adjustment (that's a judgment call -- is his wrist still bothering him?) but gets a big help from the Track Adjustment since he's finished 5th at RedBud in three tries but nearly 8th everywhere else.  However, JMart has an even bigger favorable Track Adjustment, based on him finishing 1st the past two years and 3rd in 2013 at RedBud, compared to 5th everywhere else.  This adjustment causes JMart to be the distinct favorite this weekend.

Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47   :::   As always – Feedback welcomed

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