Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Washougal Predictions
Who's got the talent and primed to win in Week 9 at Washougal? The "This-Week" rankings look at the rider's perceived ability (aka "true talent") based on the current and past seasons as well as injuries + the rider's history at the upcoming track.
Here are the predictions for the 450 class this weekend -- compared to last week, Marvin Musquin moves into 3rd over Justin Barcia, and both Trey Canard and Broc Tickle are out due to injury, lifting Christophe Pourcel into 5th after injury and track adjustments:
Note: several riders have not announced in/out yet, such as Weston Peick, Matt Bisceglia, and Justin Bogle.
If he rides this week, which is uncertain after last week's crash, Weston Peick has big Track Adjustment, since from 2012 through 2015 he's gone 9 / 10 / 6 / 6 at Washougal (the #6 finishes were in 2014 & 2015), compared to 12th on average at other tracks. Fredrik Noren also gains a position due to a positive Track Adjustment based on finishing 3rd here last year.
Here are the predictions for the 250 class at Washougal:
In the 250's, Cooper Webb is projected with a big advantage, partly due to a Track Adjustment based on his win at Washougal last year and 4th place the year before -- though he was 11th the year prior to that (2013). I think the biggest question is if the Jeremy Martin from Moto 2 last week is the new JMart, fully recovered from his early season fatigue -- and if so will he run away from the field like he did last week?
Alex Martin still sits in 6th despite him having the 3rd fastest laptimes in the 250 class this season. It seems the model doesn't adjust to unforcasted breakouts very well. For instance, Jason Anderson's breakout in 2016 Supercross took a while to settle in before he moved up near the top of the projections -- although he had less history in 450 SX, so it was easier for the 2016 data to overcome the prior history. The basis behind the forecasts is that the dozens of races before 2016 are nearly as predictive as the 8 races so far this season. But with such disparate results prior to this year (averaging 12th in 2014, 10th in 2015) compared to 2016 so far (3rd fastest, as mentioned, and currently 4th in points), the model still factors in the prior years, which puts AMart in 6th (granted, a virtual tie for 5th) rather than 3rd or even 4th.
So, while we would like to see a start-to-finish race between Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac, we're not holding our breath -- Roczen has just been too fast. But who will take 3rd is once again a big question, and will Musquin live up to the prediction, or even go by Tomac again for 2nd? And in the 250's, to make things really interesting, JMart has to not only finish at the top, he needs to pick up points on Webb by going 1-1 or else hoping Webb has some trouble of his own.