Short Track: East Rutherford "This-Week" Predictions Review
5/1/2016
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 16 in East Rutherford? It might be the last week that we get truly relevant predictions: with a lot of the spots locked up going into Vegas, it's hard to know if we get all of the riders going 100% next week.
Pretty good week for the predictions, I think, and better than the predictions from the prior week in Foxborough, although missing on the #1 spot isn't exactly "success". Overall there was smaller discrepancy in total, partly because no pick was off by more than 6 spots -- a lot of that has to do with no major crashes, which isn't really in my or the numbers' control. Three picks were right on and another five were within 1 spot.
The biggest misses were Ryan Dungey at #1 when he finished 4th and Cole Seely at #7 when he finished 3rd. Not to mention Justin Brayton, predicted 11th but he finished up at #5.
Good picks include Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac, each off by 1 spot. Also, putting Jason Anderson outside the Top 3, which I think was probably not the general consensus, though the prediction (#4) was off by 2 spots (finished 6th). And, the exact predictions were Blake Baggett (12th), Broc Tickle (13th), and Vince Friese (18th).
As for the Location Adjustment, for the third week in a row there were only two, though unlike the past two weeks, these adjustments were decent in magnitude and had a little more data behind them (detailed the adjustment here). So how did it go?
Eli Tomac was expected to do much better than normal (approx. 2.7 spots), and he finished 2 spots better than his prediction without the location adjustment. Weston Peick was predicted to finish about 1.3 spots better than his prediction without the location adjustment, and he finished 3 spots better. Even though the Location Adjustment is still in experimental phase, this week's results were two for two, which is a good sign that the adjustment may prove to be predictive.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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