Glen Helen "This-Week" Predictions Review
6/1/2016
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 2 at
Glen Helen? A few big surprises, but overall the predictions did well again, getting the top 5 correct for the 450's (with a little help from Roczen's air
fork sensor) and 7 picks correct in total:
Out of the Top 20, 10 picks were within 2 spots, and if you throw out Blake Baggett (finished 19th) because of his weird situation (riding with a broken collarbone, 1 week after injuring it), and if you consider Ken Roczen #1 and Ryan Dungey #2 (since the mechanical problem for Roczen was the only reason he didn't finish 1st), then still more than half of the picks were within 2 spots.
Some notes for the 450 class:
Justin Barcia and Weston Peick had crashes that lead to the two biggest discrepancies.
Josh Grant finished 6th (predicted 12th), which was better than estimated but not as high as many pundit's thought (that he would podium and/or perhaps win a moto).
Toshiki Tomita (18th) and Jesse Wentland (20th) were the only riders outside the predicted Top 20 to make it into the actual top 20 finishers.
As for the Location Adjustment, there were two minor ones, and one of them was for Barcia who DNF'd the first moto with a mechanical problem after a crash. The other one, though was for Phil Nicoletti, who was expected to finish 2 spots better than his prediction before the track adjustment (15th --> 13th), and he finished 7 spots better, in 8th:
250 Predictions
Again the predictions for the 250 class were not as good. It didn't help that Christian Craig, Justin Hill, Jordon Smith, and Anthony Rodriguez had crashes that skewed their results. Also, Austin Forkner again defied the predictions, as did Alex Martin -- they both gained significant spots in the week 2 ranking versus week 1, but apparently not enough:
Hopefully the 250 class will get some stability as we move on from the fairly unique tracks at Hangtown and Glen Helen.
The 250 class had one major Track Adjustment, for Zach Osborne -- he was expected to finish 7 spots off his regular prediction. But, he finished 8th overall, which didn't match up with what was expected. Also, Matt Bisceglia had a large Track Adjustment, but he didn't end up riding and even the RacerX guys don't seem to know why (he left MAD Racing/Dirt Candy Suzuki but hasn't announced what's next).
Now, we'll turn to week 3 in Colorado, and see where the current leaders--Ken Roczen and Alex Martin--land in next week's predictions.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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