RedBud "This-Week" Predictions Review
7/5/2016
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 5 at RedBud? Some
consistency, for better or worse -- the 450 predictions seem pretty good while the 250's are decent at the top of the table but pretty wonky in the middle and
bottom. The 450's had 4 exact hits and 5 more missed by one spot, which means that nearly half of the Top 20 was predicted within 1:
The biggest misses:
Weston Peick--who finished 15th (33 / 11) due to a couple crashes in Moto 1.
Tyler Bowers was predicted at #12 but finished tied for 18th -- this was a shot in the dark since this was his first 450 outdoor pro race since 2009.
Andrew Short finished 10th, 7 spots above his prediction of 17th.
The 450's had one major Track Adjustment and two notable small ones:
Justin Brayton was expected to earn 4 more points at RedBud than his prediction before the track adjustment, and he earned 3 more than predicted. Weston Peick and Phil Nicoletti were each expected to earn 1 fewer points than their predictions before the track adjustment, and both of them finished much worse at RedBud -- the actual result was in the correct direction, but was way higher than the prediction, so I'm not sure if that means the prediction was essentially correct or was way off....
250 Predictions
The lower class predictions continue to being chaos. At least within the top 6 there was only one major miss -- Aaron Plessinger, who I noted in the predictions was continuing to put up poor results despite having decent speed (going over the bars at the start of the race will do that to you). Overall there was 1 exact pick and 3 more that were off by 1:
The 250 class several Track Adjustments this week, which at least fared better than the general 250 predictions:
Cooper Webb was expected to earn 3 more points at RedBud than his prediction before the track adjustment, and he earned 8 more than predicted.
Jeremy Martin was expected to earn 6 more points at RedBud than his prediction before the track adjustment, and he earned 7 fewer than predicted. I think JMart's illness (or whatever you want to call it) is really having an effect and needs to be taken into account in the predictions. I'm hardly the first one to notice that the problem isn't going away, and he even mentioned it after the race ("I felt so bad in moto one. I felt like I was just riding around at 70 percent.") per RacerX.
Joey Savatgy was expected to earn 2 fewer points at RedBud than his prediction before the track adjustment, and he earned 5 fewer than predicted.
Zach Osborne was expected to earn 3 more points at RedBud than his prediction before the track adjustment, and he earned 9 more than predicted.
Kyle Cunningham was expected to earn 2 more points at RedBud than his prediction before the track adjustment, and he earned 8 more than predicted.
So, 4 of the 5 adjustments proved to be pretty accurate, with the lone "error" possibly explained by JMart's unexplained lack of energy.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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