Short Track: Santa Clara "This-Week" Predictions Review
4/5/2016
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 12 in Santa Clara? The estimates for Santa Clara actually had the most predictions hit exactly (5 *if you count Josh Hansen, who was predicted via a tweet rather than the article) of any of the true-talent predictions so far, though there were several big misses:
Ryan Dungey did what he does, Trey Canard performed as expected despite what has been an inconsistent season for him, Weston Peick was also spot on (see below), Josh Grant and Josh Hansen finished as expected. Ken Roczen and Blake Baggett each finished one spot off their predictions. But....Eli Tomac finished way worse (also see below), and I still haven't heard what happened to Marvin Musquin (residual from an earlier wreck?). Justin Barcia, returning from injury, couldn't make it into the top half of finishers, and Justin Bogle was only predicted at 13th though he managed to get out in front temporarily and held on for 6th. Can't win 'em all, I guess.
As for the Location adjustment, we included two adjustments for riders that had notable history at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, albeit based on very little history (1 prior event):
The good news was that Weston Peick performed exactly as expected once the location adjustment was applied -- before the adjustment he was predicted at 12th, but with the adjustment he was predicted 8th. He finished 8th.
Eli Tomac did not have the same success - the adjustment expected him to improve by one spot (from 3rd to 2nd), but instead of 2nd he finished 7th. He started the day of very well, qualifying 1st with the fastest overall practice lap, making it look like perhaps the location adjustment had it right. But he finished 6th in his Heat Race, then 2nd in the semi (in a tight finish where Trey Canard ended up in 1st). For the Main Event, though, he got off to a bad start and was off his game (as we documented in the recap) with relatively slow lap times throughout the race.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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