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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Full-Season Predictions After Week 9

Quick update for the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions, going into Unadilla.  Three weeks left, so there's not likely any big swings in the rankings, even for someone like Christophe Pourcel who has said he's out for the rest of the season.


As RacerX
alluded to, it's now just a race for 5th.  While Pourcel's position in 5th seems secure by the numbers, the most likely challenger appears to be Benny Bloss, and with his short track record, the prediction for him is much less certain than for the seasoned MX veterans.  To make up the 66 point gap, Bloss would need to average 10th in the final 6 Motos -- not that much of a stretch, considering he's been in the Top 10 in each of his last 6 races.

However, Andrew Short (among others) has a say in this as well, considering he currently has 4 more points than Bloss and has his own string of 4 Motos in the Top 10.  As discussed in the Washougal Predictions Review, the numbers don't love Short because of a lackluster 2015 and beginning to 2016.  Perhaps his recent resurgence is for real, and he should be predicted in 6th or even 5th, ahead of Bloss.

Now that we're so far along in the season, factoring in the adjustment for riders who are dealing with injures becomes relatively minor.  Only a few riders are affected enough to lose positions:

Both projections together:


Jeremy Martin sitting out the rest of the season causes him to fall from 2nd to somewhere around 7th, while Austin Forkner steps up into 4th.  Cooper Webb's lead is plenty comfortable, and Joey Savatgy / Alex Martin are in a dead heat for 2nd behind him:

Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47   :::   As always – Feedback welcomed

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