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Washougal Predictions Review

How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 9 at Washougal?  Top 3 in the 450 class were right, but that's not exactly a special accomplishment considering it was Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, and Marvin Musquin -- who I think most would have expected to be at the top.  I'd say 1 thru 9 look pretty good, though:

Even though Christophe Pourcel--predicted 5th--finished 13th overall, he was riding near the front in Moto 1 until a big crash, and he managed to rebound to 6th in Moto 2, banged up as he was -- so, I'm good with that prediction.  Heath Harrison didn't quite live up to his prediction in 10th, but 11th through 15th worked out pretty well, including James Stewart who was predicted 14th and finished 15th in points overall -- despite a DNF in Moto 2.

The major miss in the 450's was Andrew Short, who finished tied for 5th (6th after the tiebreaker) with a 6 / 7 -- his two best race results of the season.  Why is he predicted so low, all the way down at #15?  Part of it is the age adjustment, which penalizes him but perhaps has too strong an effect now that we have so many races from the current season to inform us about his expected performance.  But even without that adjustment, he'd be predicted around 10th or 11th -- his 2015 MX results (5 races) averaged 14th overall.  And in 2016 his average result has been 12th.  So I don't think there's any way to have seen that 6 / 7 coming from Short at Washougal.

250 Predictions
The Lites class ended up with results all over the place because of the Moto 2 crash and resulting traffic jam.  Nonetheless, the messy prediction versus actuals are below:

Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47   :::   As always – Feedback welcomed

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