Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 10
3/16/2017
Just like for last week, with fairly minimal movement from week to week, the updates for the full-season predictions will be focused on the charts, not many words....
SEASON PREDICTIONS
With the big margin of victory for Eli Tomac at Daytona, he narrows the gap behind Ryan Dungey from 48 points in last week's prediction to 35 points in this week's update. Despite closing the gap substantially in the current points standings, Tomac still needs to either win out or have continued mistakes/bad luck for Dungey.
Marvin Musquin held on to a fairly slim lead for 3rd place last week, but with another bad result he drops in position, passed by Cole Seely. The other positions remain the same, except for Cooper Webb dropping a spot as his absence due to shoulder injury continues, and Mike Alessi/Vince Friese swapping between 18th and 20th.
Injury Adjustment
After factoring in riders dealing with injuries as well as projecting future injuries, a few more things change.
You can find a full breakdown of predicting injuries in The MX Book, detailing the apparent randomness of injury and the likelihood of re-injury.
Can Tomac make up some more ground on Dungey? Indy hasn't been too kind to Tomac in the recent past, so we'll see what the This Week predictions think, which will be up by Thursday night, Friday early morning at the latest.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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