Supercross 2017: Daytona -- Predictions Review
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 10 at Daytona? Being strapped for time and since these reviews are done mostly for my own benefit, the review will be presented with minimal comments. (btw, Trey Canard was removed from the list since he didn't ride due to a lingering injury (concussion).)
Only 3 were exact, but 8 more were off by 1 or 2 spots. That means 11 out of 19 were within 2 spots, which is decent but not great. Davi Millsaps being predicted exactly in 12th is a good one. Oh, and Eli Tomac at #1, once the Track Adjustment was included (though MotoXGraphs is far from the only place to predict Tomac to win Daytona). Not so good is Broc Tickle predicted 6th but finished 14th. Marvin Musquin was way off, but there were special circumstances with getting held up by Barcia's crash at the opening turn. Mike Alessi had the best day (10th) compared to his prediction (19th).
And Jeremy Martin blew his prediction away, but I'm alright with that one as a one-off strange occurrence (no offense, JMart) since he looked about like the 10th best rider during the Heat and Semi races but found something extra for the Main Event. Add in that his prediction was bogged down by a so-far lackluster 2017 Supercross results that have included a lot of bad luck (being crashed into, stuck behind pileups, etc.), so there was plenty of expected variance in the prediction for JMart's first 450SX race.
Since the Stadium/Track Adjustment is still a bit of a work in progress (The MX Book goes through it in detail, with encouraging conclusions), I highlight the major ones each week to see if the riders' finishing spots were better or worse at the Supercross stadium -- that is, in line with the prediction or not.
As usual, I will list the 3 biggest to review how the adjustment compared with the apparent effect of the stadium:
Of the 3 biggest adjustments, 2 were in the correct direction and had similar magnitude, so like in the past several weeks, we're seeing some predictive value in the Track Adjustment. The adjustment for Jake Weimer didn't pan out as he was predicted to earn 4 points before the Track Adjustment and actually finished in 17th place, earning 4 points. FYI, his prior history at Daytona has been 20th in 2015 and 17th in 2016, compared to an average of about 14th everywhere else.