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MX Outdoor "This Week" Predictions -- Hangtown 2017   (5/20/2017)
Expectations for Eli Tomac are extremely high heading into the opening weekend of MX Outdoor Nationals, but what do the numbers think? Looking below, you'll see the predictions for Hangtown do expect a comfortable win for Tomac once both motos are complete....
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2017 Pre-Season MX Outdoor Nationals Predictions   (5/19/2017)
...To me, that leaves 2 questions for the 2017 MX title: Will Tomac continue to have the mistakes that spoiled his Supercross comeback for the ages?  Even if he does make mistakes, will anyone even be close enough in points for it to matter?
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2017 Supercross Week 17 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Las Vegas [Charts Only]   (5/7/2017)
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Las Vegas 2017   (5/5/2017)
As has been the case for so many weeks now, Ryan Dungey and Eli Tomac are essentially in a dead heat for the #1 spot. There are...
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 16   (5/5/2017)
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2017 Supercross Week 16 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: New Jersey [Charts Only]   (5/1/2017)
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- New Jersey 2017   (4/28/2017)
Just like in the overall predictions, Eli Tomac takes over the #1 spot. Also, Tomac has had more success at MetLife Stadium than Ryan Dungey, which widens the gap a little bit after the Track Adjustment...
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 15   (4/27/2017)
Finally the numbers have Eli Tomac predicted to finish first overall. There is a change to the methodology, though -- something I've been meaning to get to for quite a while, so perhaps its serendipitous that...
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2017 Supercross Week 15 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Salt Lake City [Charts Only]   (4/25/2017)
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Salt Lake City 2017   (4/21/2017)
Again, it might seem like a surprise that Ryan Dungey is predicted ahead of Eli Tomac, but...
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 14   (4/21/2017)
The crazy thing is that Eli's slow start to the season is holding down his 2017 numbers enough that he only barely...
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2017 Supercross Week 14 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Seattle [Charts Only]   (4/18/2017)

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2017 Supercross Week 13 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: St. Louis [Charts Only]   (4/18/2017)

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2017 Supercross Week 12 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Detroit [Charts Only]   (4/18/2017)

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2017 Supercross Week 11 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Indianapolis [Charts Only]   (3/18/2017)

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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Indianapolis 2017   (3/17/2017)
As Eli Tomac keeps winning, he draws closer and closer to Ryan Dungey in not only points, but in the "True Talent" ratings.  While Dungey still has a slight advantage, the two are separated by less than a point -- before taking into account the Track Adjustment, that is.  Who's got the talent and primed to win at Supercross week 11 in Indianapolis?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 10   (3/16/2017)
With the big margin of victory for Eli Tomac at Daytona, he narrows the gap behind Ryan Dungey from 48 points in last week's prediction to 35 points in this week's update....
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Supercross 2017: Daytona -- Predictions Review   (3/15/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 10 at Daytona? Being strapped for time and since these reviews are done mostly for my own benefit, the review will be presented with minimal comments.
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2017 Supercross Week 10 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Daytona   (3/11/2017)
Even though the pattern from Daytona looked a lot like last week's in Toronto, there was way more drama. For one, despite getting a good start, Eli Tomac actually had a threat to his presumed victory -- and that threat was from Jeremy Martin in his first ever 450SX Main Event!
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Daytona 2017   (3/9/2017)
<Eli Tomac is keeping the pressure on, but the ratings still don't see him as the automatic favorite over Ryan Dungey on any given week.  Remember, Tomac has had some off nights, while Dungey hasn't yet finished lower than 4th.  Who's got the talent and primed to win at Supercross week 10 in Daytona?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 9   (3/8/2017)
Eli Tomac narrows the gap from 55 points in last week's prediction to 48 points in this week's update. Still a long way to go for Tomac to really make it a contest...
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Supercross 2017: Toronto -- Predictions Review   (3/7/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 9 at Toronto?
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2017 Supercross Week 9 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Toronto   (3/5/2017)
At Toronto, Eli Tomac had another impressive win, maintaining his status as the fastest guy in Supercross.  Ryan Dungey had impressive race himself, but that was to move from 20th at the opening section up to 2nd.  This recap will be especially brief, so use the charts below to check out the positions and laptimes of any and all 450 riders from Toronto.
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Toronto 2017   (3/3/2017)
In Atlanta, Ryan Dungey wasn't exactly back on track, but he did win the race and the points.  While the updated full-season prediction still sees Dungey as a heavy favorite to win the championship, each week Eli Tomac and Marvin Musquin have a chance to chip away at his lead.  Who's got the talent and primed to win at Supercross week 9 in Toronto?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 8   (3/2/2017)
Considering some time constraints and with fairly minimal movement from week to week, the updates for the full-season predictions will be mostly charts, not many words....
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Supercross 2017: Atlanta -- Predictions Review   (3/2/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 8 at Atlanta? Being strapped for time and since these reviews are done mostly for my own benefit, the review will be presented with minimal comments.
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2017 Supercross Week 8 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Atlanta   (2/25/2017)
Even though the comeback fell short, it made for a riveting 450 Supercross race, as Eli Tomac slashed into Ryan Dungey's lead, lap after lap.  After the opening lap, Dungey (in 1st) had an approximate lead over Tomac (in 9th) of approximately 5.7 seconds (according to the broadcast -- the official times for Lap 1 aren't published).  The rest of the way, Tomac was faster than Dungey by an average of 0.20 seconds per lap -- so in 23 laps he made up 4.6 seconds, leaving a gap of (approximately) just more than a second ("provisional" results said Tomac trailed Dungey by 1.5 seconds at the finish).  That doesn't tell the whole story, so there's more in the details below.
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Atlanta 2017   (2/24/2017)
Another week, another non-win for Ryan Dungey. While the updated full-season prediction still sees Dungey as a heavy favorite to win the championship, each week Eli Tomac and Marvin Musquin have a chance to chip away at his lead. Who's got the talent and primed to win at Supercross week 8 in Atlanta?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 7   (2/23/2017)
Just like last week: despite a slightly off week (relatively speaking) for Ryan Dungey, he maintained a healthy gap in the predicted standings. Dungey loses some of his buffer between himself and Marvin Musquin/Eli Tomac, while those two are neck-and-neck for 2nd in the predictions....
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Supercross 2017: Minneapolis -- Predictions Review   (2/22/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 7 at Minneapolis?  Better than at Arlington, naturally, since things were relatively normal at Minneapolis compared to last week.  But with a track that was fairly one-lined, I'd imagine that starting position had a big impact on finishing position...
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2017 Supercross Week 7 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Minneapolis   (2/19/2017)
Despite some plywood showing on the track, Supercross got back to normal at Minneapolis.  Well, sort of.  Eli Tomac got back to his role as the new guy to beat.  And Ryan Dungey was normal in that he rode a solid race and finished on the podium.  But what wasn't normal was that Dungey got passed late in the race.  Marvin Musquin managed to pass Jason Anderson and Davi Millsaps early, then Dungey late...
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Minneapolis 2017   (2/17/2017)
Sure, Ryan Dungey has looked a bit mortal the last few weeks, with a 3rd, 2nd, and 4th, but the smart money says that's just a blip on the radar.  And what better opportunity to get back in the grove but a race in his home state?  Who's got the talent and primed to win at Supercross week 7 in Minneapolis?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 6   (2/16/2017)
Despite a slightly off week (relatively speaking) for Ryan Dungey, he increases his gap in points for the predicted standings.  Things got crazy at Arlington, but it looks like the craziness was spread out enough to cause only mild changes for most riders -- the most notable one being the predicted runner-up to Dungey...
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Supercross 2017: Arlington -- Predictions Review   (2/13/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 6 at Arlington?  I think you could probably answer that without looking.  Riders' results last week were all over the place for a variety of reasons including at least two flat tires...
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2017 Supercross Week 6 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Arlington   (2/11/2017)
Well, the Main Event got nuts at Arlington. Marvin Musquin rode a very nice race, which from the first three weeks looked like a win for him was in the works. Cole Seely also capitalized on the craziness, running a very fast race and staying upright. Ryan Dungey made the best out of a bad start, and Eli Tomac lost his front end -- and his front brake -- spoiling a chance to pick up major points on Dungey....
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What If This Tomac Is The Real Deal?   (2/10/2017)
...But what if the Eli Tomac we saw at Phoenix and Oakland is the real, new Eli Tomac?  What if something just clicked and he should be expected to ride this way for the rest of the season?
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Arlington 2017   (2/9/2017)
Can Eli Tomac keep the momentum going?  An interesting note about his history at AT&T Stadium below.  Can someone else get back in the mix?  Who's got the talent and primed to win at Supercross week 6 in Arlington?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 5   (2/8/2017)
With Tomac's win at Oakland, Dungey's predicted lead shrinks from 58 points to 47 points.  To shrink that lead down to zero, Tomac will need to keep finishing ahead of Dungey.
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Supercross 2017: Oakland -- Predictions Review   (2/7/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 5 at Oakland? Things settled back in a bit at Oakland, with the one potential surprise being Eli Tomac blowing away Ryan Dungey again -- depending on if you expected a repeat performance from Phoenix or not....
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2017 Supercross Week 5 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Oakland   (2/4/2017)
Another gift from the Supercross season, as Eli Tomac provides a second data point to show that the chase for the title is on.  Ryan Dungey shook off a mediocre qualifying position and Heat Race, looking fast out of the gate in the Main Event and too fast to catch after a few laps....
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Oakland 2017   (2/2/2017)
Last week we were asking "Can anyone keep up with Ryan Dungey in 2017?" Well, the answer is "yes". This week, all eyes will be on Eli Tomac to see if he can do it again. And not to minimize what Chad Reed did at Phoenix, but I don't see the same expectations being put on him, such as the Supercross fans expecting him to ride wheel-to-wheel with Dungey every week. Who's got the talent and primed to win at Supercross week 5 in Oakland?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 4   (2/1/2017)
One week ago we thought that perhaps the top spots were solidified -- Ryan Dungey had a clear path to the title, Marvin Musquin had been distinctly the next best rider, and some combo of Cole Seely and Jason Anderson was likely to be #3 and #4. (All of this excluding Ken Roczen, of course.)  Eli Tomac was in the mix, but hanging by a thread -- he was predicted 4th, but only because of a DQ by Anderson at A2.
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Supercross 2017: Phoenix -- Predictions Review   (1/30/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 3 at Phoenix?  You'd think that with all the craziness that went down at Phoenix, the predictions would be thrown into chaos.  You'd only be half right.  Yes, there are many big misses, but overall 10 out of the 20 predictions were within 2 spots.  That would be just over half if you forgive the miss on Weston Peick, who injured himself in qualifying.
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2017 Supercross Week 4 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Phoenix   (1/29/2017)
Just when we all thought that Ryan Dungey had a clear path to the season championship, Eli Tomac exploded back into the race.  There is still a decent points gap -- 20 -- but at least there's a stay of execution for the 2017 Supercross season.
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Phoenix 2017   (1/26/2017)
Can anyone keep up with Ryan Dungey? Even if so, can anyone beat Ryan Dungey? The general consensus seems to be that Dungey should cruise to the 2017 Supercross title now that Ken Roczen is sidelined. Who's got the talent and primed to challenge Dungey at Supercross week 4 in Phoenix?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 3   (1/24/2017)
Just as we were about to settle in for the 2017 season-long outlook, Ken Roczen's crash (and Jason Anderson's DQ) causes movement all across the board.  Predictably, Ryan Dungey moves to #1, and Marvin Musquin has a firm grasp on 2nd.  There's essentially a 3-way tie for who is expected to grab the #3 spot, which we'll get into below...
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Supercross 2017: Anaheim 2 -- Predictions Review   (1/23/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 3 at Anaheim 2?  Well, there was one MAJOR deviation that we all know about--Ken Roczen's crash and injury--plus Jason Anderson got himself disqualified, knocking out another likely Top 5 rider.  The ripple effect carried all the way from 1 through 20:
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2017 Supercross Week 3 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Anaheim 2   (1/22/2017)
After last week, it seemed like a relief that KRoc had some competition for the Supercross championship, as Dungey gave him a match all race long.  Now that might have swung back too far: if Roczen misses time with a reported broken arm, then Dungey might run away with the title.  Hold your horses, though, there might in fact be another contender...
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Anaheim 2 2017   (1/19/2017)
...On the other hand, Dungey managed to match Roczen's speed last week in San Diego, so perhaps he's licking his chops for the return to Anaheim and a shot at redemption.  Who's got the talent and primed to win in Supercross week 3 at Anaheim 2?...
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 2   (1/18/2017)
Twice as much data from 2017 compared to last week's update, what's changed in the predictions? At the top, most notably the gap between Ken Roczen and Ryan Dungey shrinks slightly, while Eli Tomac loses a couple spots, somewhat predictably....
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Supercross 2017: San Diego -- Predictions Review   (1/17/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 2 in San Diego? The second week's predictions should show some major improvements over the first week. Was that the case? For one, the Week 2 predictions had 7 riders predicted exactly (5 were predicted exactly in Week 1)....
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2017 Supercross Week 2 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: San Diego   (1/15/2017)
Whew! ...KRoc has some competition!  I think we were all at least a little worried that 2017 was over before it started -- the eyeballs said he looked way faster than everyone else, perhaps unstoppable, and the numbers didn't disagree.  But tonight's race at San Diego was about all that us fans could ask for....
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- San Diego 2017   (1/12/2017)
They've shaken off the rust, the butterflies in the stomach should be gone, so now it's time to really prove their stuff.  Who's got the talent and primed to win in Supercross week 2 at San Diego?
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Supercross 2017 Predictions -- Update After Week 1   (1/11/2017)
Now that a race is on the books for 2017, what's changed in the predictions?  At the top, things look pretty much the same, but there are a few big risers and big decliners....
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Anaheim 1 2017 -- Predictions Review   (1/10/2017)
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 1 at Anaheim? The first week of the season is always a challenge, but at least the top several predictions looked pretty solid, with a few understandable exceptions (aka "excuses")....
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2017 Supercross Week 1 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Anaheim 1  (1/8/2017)
The buildup, the race, and now the dust settles after Anaheim 1.  Ken Roczen looked sharp from the get go -- remember, he doesn't go 100% in the qualifying laps unless he has to, so qualifying 5th was just an illusion.  From the beginning of the Heat races through the end of the Main Event, the fear has come true: Roczen looks unstoppable....
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Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- Anaheim 1 2017  (1/4/2017)
...Ken Roczen starts out as the predicted favorite, and his advantage grows when the location is considered.  In 450SX, he's got 3 wins in 8 races at Angel Stadium with only 6 wins in 36 other races at other locations.  Ryan Dungey, on the other hand, has been slightly worse in Anaheim than other places, which makes the predicted gap between him and #1 Roczen larger after the Track adjustment....
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Supercross 2017 Predictions  (12/29/2016)
...That is a long way of saying that for the 2017 SX Predictions, Roczen's projected improvement coupled with his success in the 2016 MX season is going to boost his predicted finish ahead of Dungey's....The preseason prediction, without considering injuries (with the rider's 2016 finish on the right) is below...
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Pro MX Laptimes  (10/14/2016)
Just what the title says -- pro MX laptimes -- view them in Tableau Public...
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Pro SX - Way-Too-Early 2017 Predictions  (9/25/2016)
The #1 rider might be a surprise: Ryan Dungey.  Considering how Ken Roczen dominated the outdoor season, I would guess Roczen's the public's perceived favorite coming in to 2017 Supercross.  But what the numbers see is that Dungey was nearly as dominant in 2016 Supercross as Roczen was in Motocross...
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Pro MX - Way-Too-Early 2017 Predictions  (9/6/2016)
In the 450s, the Top 3 will be no surprise: Ken Roczen, then Ryan Dungey, then Eli Tomac.  Each of those riders, though, has a major question mark.  For Roczen, are we back to the beginning of 2015 (after he switched from KTM to RCH Suzuki) when he complains about his bike setup most every week after inconsistent results?  For Dungey, he's coming off an injury...
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Right or Wrong?: 2016 450MX Pre-Season Predictions  (9/1/2016)
Back before Hangtown, over 3 months ago, we made our predictions as to who would come out on top for the 2016 MX Outdoor Nationals season. We took into account past performance, age, injury history, and even (as a minor factor) the 2016 Supercross results. And this is what we came up with, listing the actual finish on the right...
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Visually Recapping 2016 Motocross  (8/31/2016)
Not that you can put the entire National Outdoor 450MX pro season into one graph, but here it is...
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Ironman Predictions Review  (8/29/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 12 at Ironman?  Ken Roczen won handily, as expected, but Justin Barcia sprung up to 2nd, which moved each of Eli Tomac and Marvin Musquin down a spot...
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2016 Pro MX Week 12 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Ironman  (8/28/2016)
The Saturday races at Ironman made for a nice finale to the 2016 MX outdoor season -- a soft track (muddy early, dry-ish late) gave us a fun race to watch as one more time it was Ken Roczen and "everyone else" in the 450 class. And while Ken Roczen is the "Now", in the 250 class the "Future" was on display as 17-year-old Austin Forkner stamped his mark by taking the overall win. More on that below, as you might be wondering about someone like Cooper Webb as the future...
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Ironman Predictions  (8/25/2016)
Here are the predictions for the 450 class this weekend -- one last time: same Top 3 of Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, and Marvin Musquin.  Justin Barcia is in 4th again, but a big surprise (at least to me) at #5 -- Justin Anderson is actually going to return for the final week's races (he'll figure in at 6th after the injury adjustment).  Dean Wilson is also right there, but then a fairly large gap down to Benny Bloss, Phil Nicoletti, Weston Peick, and Matt Bisceglia, rounding out the Top 10....
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Full-Season Predictions After Week 11  (8/21/2016)
Last week of the season, heading to Ironman!  Most of the spots are locked up, notably 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.  Well, if Marvin Musquin earns zero points and Justin Barcia wins both motos, then Barcia could take over 3rd, but I think that's a remote enough possibility that we can consider the top 4 spots solidified....
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Budds Creek Predictions Review  (8/21/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 11 at Budds Creek? A little problem in the 450s, in that Eli Tomac finished 4th instead of 2nd (covered in the recap) so the podium was wrong. But, the top 5 predicted all did finish in the top 5, including Phil Nicoletti, which I would guess was not a common prediction....
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2016 Pro MX Week 11 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Budds Creek  (8/20/2016)
The foreseeable happened at Budds Creek, as Ken Roczen and Cooper Webb clinched their 2016 titles.  There was plenty more though, with battles raging (or at least being contested) for podium spots in both the 450 and the Lites, and recent/newcomers to the pro circuit trying their luck again...
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Budds Creek Predictions  (8/19/2016)
...compared to last week, same Top 3: Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, and Marvin Musquin.  The next three are also the same as last week, with Justin Barcia, then Weston Peick, followed by Dean Wilson.  Benny Bloss checks in all the way at #7, and....
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Full-Season Predictions After Week 10  (8/19/2016)
With two weeks left, there's not a whole lot to update for the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions, going into Budds Creek.  Ken Roczen can clinch 1st place this week, and Eli Tomac has essentially locked up 2nd....
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Unadilla Rookies 2  (8/19/2016)
Jerry Robin debuted as a 19-year-old at Unadilla -- in the 450 class.  Robin was a Two-Stroke B/C (16+) Loretta champ in 2013, and he was coming off a win in the 250 All-Star A/B class at this year's Loretta's.
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Unadilla Rookies 1  (8/18/2016)
Bradley Taft had his first race as a pro last week at Unadilla.  He was coming off a win (1 / 2 / 1) in the 250 A at Loretta's and a 6th place finish (3 / 17 / 3) in the Open Pro Sport class.  So what should we have expected from him at Unadilla, and what should we expect in the future?
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Unadilla Predictions Review  (8/17/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 10 at Unadilla?  One of the better weeks for the predictions -- top 4 essentially correct, and other than the DNFs, no spot off by more than 4....
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2016 Pro MX Week 10 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Unadilla  (8/13/2016)
Back in action after the layoff.  During the down time, the clickable Lap Chart got a couple updates (compared to last week), which you can see below.  While Unadilla was a challenging track and fun to watch, there wasn't much drama up front in either class -- the drama was last night, when the BTO truck caught on fire.  One of the stories of the season is how several teams (props to Husqvarna for apparently chipping in) managed to work until the wee hours of the night to rebuild/replace every single bike.  And not only that, but Andrew Short, Justin Brayton, and Benny Bloss had quite good racing days, with the exception of Short's clutch wire coming undone in Moto 1.  Bloss even managed his best ever finish with a 7 / 4 for 4th overall!
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Unadilla Predictions  (8/12/2016)
...compared to last week, same Top 3: Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, and Marvin Musquin.  Weston Peick moves into 5th over Dean Wilson.  One notable riser is Benny Bloss, who moves up 3 spots this week to #8...
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Full-Season Predictions After Week 9  (8/12/2016)
Quick update for the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions, going into Unadilla.  Three weeks left, so there's not likely any big swings in the rankings, even for someone like Christophe Pourcel who has said he's out for the rest of the season...
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Washougal Predictions Review  (8/11/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 9 at Washougal?  Top 3 in the 450 class were right, but that's not exactly a special accomplishment considering it was Eli Tomac, Ken Roczen, and Marvin Musquin -- who I think most would have expected to be at the top...
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2016 Pro MX Week 9 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Washougal  (7/24/2016)
After the first motos fell a bit flat, both classes' Moto 2 were quite a bit of fun.  Although Moto 1 for the 250's kicked off the day with Alex Martin's first moto win, the group still didn't pick up many points on Cooper Webb.  And for the 450's, it was same old, same old as Ken Roczen cut through to the top of the pack during Lap 1, making a last-second surge to get to 1st right at the finish line.  From there, Roczen ran away with it and Eli Tomac cruised to an easy 2nd and Marvin Musquin to an easy 3rd.  But the second round was much more exciting....
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Washougal Predictions  (7/21/2016)
Who's got the talent and primed to win in Week 9 at Washougal? The "This-Week" rankings look at the rider's perceived ability (aka "true talent") based on the current and past seasons as well as injuries + the rider's history at the upcoming track.
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Full-Season Predictions After Week 8  (7/19/2016)
Now that Spring Creek is in the books, what's changed with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions?  We're two-thirds of the way home, so at this point there aren't likely any big swings in the rankings, other than if there are significant injures.  For instance, Weston Peick's crash and 0 points from Spring Creek drop him 3 spots to #11.
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Spring Creek "This-Week" Predictions Review  (7/18/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 8 at Spring Creek?  Ken Roczen reestablished himself at the top of the list, but Marvin Musquin put in his best 450 finish yet, taking 2nd (well, tied for 2nd in points with Eli Tomac):
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2016 Pro MX Week 8 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Spring Creek  (7/17/2016)
Week 8 at Spring Creek went according to script. Ken Roczen got another challenge from Eli Tomac, but this time Roczen responded with a win. The Martin brothers had all they could handle from Cooper Webb on their home track.
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Spring Creek Predictions  (7/15/2016)
Who's got the talent and primed to win in Week 8 at Spring Creek?  The "This-Week" rankings look at the rider's perceived ability (aka "true talent") as well as injuries and the rider's history at the upcoming track.
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Full-Season Predictions After Week 7  (7/14/2016)
Now that Southwick is in the books, what's changed with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions? With the big win, will Eli Tomac make headway against Ken Roczen? Has Cooper Webb built up an insurmountable lead?
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2016 Pro MX Week 7 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Southwick  (7/12/2016)
What a set of races at the revamped Southwick!  Unfortunately the timing system wasn't revamped, with only two segments at the track and no data on what happened in the first segment of Lap 1 for each race.  I use the lap times and a few workarounds to build the lap charts, then fix the few inevitable anomalies.  But, since I can't find a way to reliably figure out the timing of the first lap....
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 6  (7/7/2016)
Heading into Southwick, what's new with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions?  Ken Roczen slightly extends his lead in the 450 class, and Eli Tomac opens an even bigger gap between 2nd and 3rd.  The Lites find some stability at the top, with Cooper Webb looking more and more like the favorite, although it's still open for several riders to step up and claim #1.
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Tool To Project MX 2nd-Half: Halfway To The Finish Line  (7/6/2016)
Projecting the rest of the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship.  Select a 450 rider from the dropdown -- displays their current rank/points compared to the projection.
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RedBud "This-Week" Predictions Review  (7/5/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 5 at RedBud?  Some consistency, for better or worse -- the 450 predictions seem pretty good while the 250's are decent at the top of the table but pretty wonky in the middle and bottom.
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2016 Pro MX Week 6 - By-The-Numbers Recap: RedBud  (7/2/2016)
New week, same story in Moto 1 for the 450's.  Ken Roczen gets a good enough start, then blows away the field.  What was new for this season was Justin Barcia making a push for the 2nd spot.  Eli Tomac's speed was too much for Barcia, but Barcia still manages his first podium of the season....
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 5  (6/30/2016)
Heading into RedBud, what's new with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions? Ken Roczen slightly extends his lead in the 450 class despite Eli Tomac's close finishes (relatively) last week at Muddy Creek....
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Muddy Creek "This-Week" Predictions Review  (6/28/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 5 at Muddy Creek?  Fairly good for the 450's, with 3 exact hits and 6 more missed by one spot:
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2016 Pro MX Week 5 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Muddy Creek  (6/26/2016)
The main storyline for the weekend in Tennessee picked up where last week left off -- can anyone even get close to Ken Roczen (and by "anyone" we mean Eli Tomac)?  At the start of Moto 1 for the 450's, it looked like maybe Cole Seely was going to answer the call.  He got out to a quick start and managed a faster pace than either Roczen or Tomac through Lap 3, but as the race went along he couldn't keep up (see 2nd graph).
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 4  (6/23/2016)
Heading into Muddy Creek in Tennessee, what's new with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions?  Ken Roczen extends his lead as injuries continue to take their toll on the 450 class.
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High Point "This-Week" Predictions Review  (6/22/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 4 at High Point?  Decent for the 450's, with 2 exact hits and 5 more missed by one:
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2016 Pro MX Week 4 - By-The-Numbers Recap: High Point  (6/18/2016)
The question going in to High Point was "Can anyone step into the void left by Ryan Dungey's injury and possibly give Ken Roczen a challenge for the moto wins?"  Within about a minute of the start of Moto 1, the answer was "No" -- Eli Tomac started off within range of Roczen, but caught his front wheel in a rut around a tight right turn, and that was it:
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 3  (6/16/2016)
After the one-week break, what's new with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions? One major change you can already guess because it's been the big news of the week -- Ryan Dungey won't be at the top of the 450 standings prediction.
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Thunder Valley "This-Week" Predictions Review  (6/8/2016)
With the news of Ryan Dungey's injury, these predictions will look quite different for a month or two.
But for now, how did the
"This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 3 at Thunder Valley?  Pretty good in the 450's, with 4 of the top 5 correct, the exception being Jason Anderson and his DNF:
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2016 Pro MX Week 3 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Thunder Valley  (6/5/2016)
Moto 1 at Thunder Valley had a bit of excitement -- some of the good kind with racing between Trey Canard and Josh Grant with some of the bad kind for Jason Anderson when his bike apparently quit on him -- but not up front, where the two leaders ran away early....
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 2  (6/2/2016)
We've got two weeks of results under our belts now, so what's new with the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship predictions?  In the 450's, changes are fairly minor because the top six riders have performed about as well as expected -- with Ken Roczen over Ryan Dungey being the major exception.
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Glen Helen "This-Week" Predictions Review  (6/1/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX outdoors in Week 2 at Glen Helen?  A few big surprises, but overall the predictions did well again, getting the top 5 correct for the 450's (with a little help from Roczen's air fork sensor) and 7 picks correct in total:
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2016 Pro MX Week 2 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Glen Helen  (5/28/2016)
Lap charts from 450 and 250 at Glen Helen:
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Predictions After Week 1  (5/24/2016)
One week in, so what's new with the predictions?  In the Upper class, not much has changed going in to Glen Helen -- while with the 250's there's quite a bit of movement...
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Tomac's Mythical 2015 Hangtown  (5/24/2016)
Better late than never, but I wanted to take a look at just how fast Eli Tomac was at Hangtown in 2015. That race seems to stand out in everyone's memory as the time when one rider just went so amazingly fast that it boggles their mind. Prompted by a comment from richiew13 after the charts on Tomac & others at Hangtown '16, here's a similar set of charts for Hangtown 2015....
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Hangtown "This-Week" Predictions Review  (5/23/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for MX Outdoors in Week 1 at Hangtown? This being the season opener, the numbers are relying only on past motocross seasons and the most recent Supercross results. So, that leaves a lot of possibility for error, you would think. To an extent, the injury adjustment and track adjustment should help limit the error. Despite all that, I think the predictions did pretty well for the 450's first week, although they didn't get the winner right:
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Hangtown extras  (5/22/2016)
In addition to the lap charts for 450 and 250 from yesterday, we'll look at some more specific issues from Hangtown below....
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2016 Pro MX Week 1 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Hangtown  (5/21/2016)
Charts first, maybe a longer recap later in the next couple days about some of the riders' speed such as Tomac coming back, then getting caught by Baggett in Moto 1. But for now, the lap charts:
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MX "True Talent" Predictions - Week 1: 2016 Hangtown  (5/20/2016)
With the Pro predictions done for Lucas Oil MX 2016 and the amateur predictions done for Loretta's 450 A and 250 A, that brings us to the "this week" rankings. The idea is to show only the estimated "true talent" of the riders going into this week's race. By "true talent" we just mean our best guess--based on what the data is telling us...
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Pro MX Outdoor - 2016 Season Predictions  (5/19/2016)
Here we go, right into the 2016 outdoor season!  Excited for the season to start, of course, but also excited that the predictions for the Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship are even more detailed and comprehensive than the predictions were for Supercross.  And, the predictions include both 450 and 250!   And and, there's a separate prediction that takes into account the riders' injury history!!  And and and, there are amateur predictions for 450 A and 250 A!!!
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Supercross results predicting upcoming Motocross?  (5/17/2016)
Clearly, MX outdoors and Supercross are very different types of races, and they cater to different riders' strengths and amplify some of their weaknesses.  But it's not clear just how different they are....
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Closing the book on 2016's SX Rookies  (5/16/2016)
In the middle of the Supercross season, we took a look at how the newcomers were doing.  Now that it's all wrapped up, we'll take a look at how their seasons finished....
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Amateur MX 2016 Pre-Season Predictions  (5/15/2016)
The preliminary 450 prediction went up Friday, and the 250's on Saturday. We're moving on to the upper amateur classes, which are below...
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Preliminary 250MX Pro 2016 Pre-Season Predictions  (5/14/2016)
The preliminary 450 prediction went up Friday, and now here's the corresponding preview of what the predictions will look like for the 250 Pro class in 2016's Motocross Championship...
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Preliminary 450MX Pro 2016 Pre-Season Predictions  (5/13/2016)
A little preview of what the predictions will look like for the 450 Pro class in 2016's Motocross Championship...
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Right or Wrong?: 2016 450SX Pre-Season Predictions  (5/10/2016)
...Overall, pretty good for a first try, judging by the table at the top of the page.  In the Top 5, four were dead-on.  On one hand, picking Ryan Dungey to win and Ken Roczen in 2nd wasn't exactly a wild and crazy forecast.  But on the other hand, plenty of people saw Roczen as the favorite, and many had Eli Tomac winning it all or at least in 2nd.  Having Tomac predicted 4th and Chad Reed predicted 5th were also exactly right....
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Visually Recapping 2016 Supercross  (5/9/2016)
Not that you can put the entire Supercross season into one graph, but here is the 450SX season in one graph:
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Short Track: Las Vegas "This-Week" Predictions Review  (5/7/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 17 in Las Vegas?  I mentioned after last week that East Rutherford might be the last week for meaningful testing of the predictions...I didn't think it would be because of a monsoon and knee-deep mud.
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2016 Week 17 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Las Vegas  (5/7/2016)
You always figure the Vegas race will be crazy, but maybe not like this!  Once the heavy rain causes a lake to form on the track, all bets are off.  At least it's a good excuse if the predictions are wrong.  So how did the night look for the 450's?
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 17 at Las Vegas  (5/5/2016)
Going into the final race of the season, there's not a lot of predicting left to do for the overall results of the Supercross 450's, especially with Ryan Dungey having clinched the title and Ken Roczen having clinched 2nd.  There's technically a race for 3rd, for 5th, and for 7th....
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Most Dominant Win from 2016 450 Supercross?  (5/4/2016)
In Week 16 at East Rutherford, Ken Roczen blew away the Supercross field, and as impressive as that win was, he seemed even better the week before.  To my eyes, it looked like his win in Week 15 at Foxborough could have been the most dominant win of the 2016 season.  Since the only remaining race...we can look at weeks 1 through 16 to judge who had the most dominant win of the 2016 Supercross 450 season.
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Short Track: East Rutherford "This-Week" Predictions Review  (5/1/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 16 in East Rutherford? It might be the last week that we get truly relevant predictions: with a lot of the spots locked up going into Vegas, it's hard to know if we get all of the riders going 100% next week....
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2016 Week 16 - By-The-Numbers Recap: East Rutherford  (5/1/2016)
For the second week in a row, Ken Roczen blasted off and left the rest of the riders in his dust (more below).  The focus was drawn to the clinching of the overall title, but with this win Roczen also secured 2nd place for the season....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 16 at East Rutherford  (4/29/2016)
In Massachusetts, Ken Roczen blew past everyone and managed to prolong the title chase for at least one more week.   For week 16, though, if Ryan Dungey finishes 13th or higher, Dungey will have at least 26 points more than Roczen, which means that Dungey clinches the 2016 Supercross title....
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Short Track: Foxborough "This-Week" Predictions Review  (4/26/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 15 in Foxborough? Not a great week, I would say, in terms of total number of spots off....
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2016 Week 15 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Foxborough  (4/24/2016)
Finally Ken Roczen took his chance and ran away with it. Though Eli Tomac tried to play spoiler, he didn't have enough to pass Roczen. And Ryan Dungey's podium streak was nearly ended by...
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Short Track: What to expect from Benny Bloss on the 450  (4/22/2016)
Filling in for Davi Millsaps, Benny Bloss is going to ride for BTOSports.com-KTM-WPS at Foxborough and perhaps beyond -- but what should we expect his results to be? On paper, we can look at how his amateur 450 results and 250 Supercross results translate to the 450 Supercross class, and...
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 15 at Foxborough  (4/22/2016)
With Ryan Dungey having nearly locked up 1st place, the conversation will soon shift to the rest of the spots in the standings.  For instance, to catch Ken Roczen in 2nd, Jason Anderson needs to make up almost 7 points per race -- so if Roczen finishes 3rd or better on average in the final three races, Anderson can only catch him by winning out.  (We looked at all riders' needs for moving up a spot going in to last week.)
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Short Track: St. Louis "This-Week" Predictions Review  (4/19/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 14 in St. Louis?  Only 4 were right on, with an additional 3 off by just 1 spot:
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2016 Week 14 - By-The-Numbers Recap: St. Louis  (4/16/2016)
Ryan Dungey and Ken Roczen put on another good battle, though this time Dungey was able to run away with it after Roczen's crash on Lap 13.  Before getting the Main Event holeshot and then running away with the race, Dungey was having a poor day -- for him....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 14 at St Louis  (4/14/2016)
While most spots seem locked up, let's look at what it would take for each rider to move up.  What would a rider need to do if we assume the person above them is going to perform the final four races at their season average?
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Indy "This-Week" Predictions Review  (4/13/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 13 in Indianapolis?  The estimates for Indy tied last week's performance for the most predictions to hit exactly (5).  An additional 3 were off by just 1 spot:...
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Follow Up: Lap Times From Indianapolis 450SX  (4/10/2016)
...That means the 7 fastest laps out of all the riders in the Main Event were from Dungey (4 of them) and Roczen (3 of them)....
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2016 Week 13 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Indy  (4/10/2016)
Ryan Dungey and Ken Roczen had another race-long battle for the #1 spot at Indianapolis, but in the end Dungey took home the most points....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 13 at Indy  (4/7/2016)
At this point in the season, the top of the board is pretty much locked up.  Anything can happen, of course, until Ryan Dungey mathematically locks up 1st, and 2nd/3rd/4th/5th/6th are still up for grabs....
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Short Track: Santa Clara "This-Week" Predictions Review  (4/5/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 12 in Santa Clara?  The estimates for Santa Clara actually had the most predictions hit exactly (5 *if you count Josh Hansen, who was predicted via a tweet rather than the article) of any of the true-talent predictions so far, though there were several big misses....
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2016 Week 12 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Santa Clara  (4/3/2016)
Ryan Dungey does it again, with emphasis on the word "again".  Let's hope Feld and company don't mess everything up with a "Chase" because of it....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Wk 12 at Santa Clara  (3/31/2016)
It's hard to have news in the standings predictions when Ryan Dungey has such a big lead and Ken Roczen has a large gap over Jason Anderson in third....
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Rider Profile: Newcomers to Supercross in 2016  (3/30/2016)
Now that the 250SX East season has a few races on the books, let's take a look at those riders who are in their very first season of Supercross.  Zac Commans, Mitchell Harrison, and Chase Marquier are nearly done with their 250SX West season, but Benny Bloss and Joshua Cartwright -- and possibly Jacob Williamson if he's riding more races -- still have a ways to go in the 250SX East season....
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Short Track: Detroit "This-Week" Predictions Review  (3/22/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 11 in Detroit?  That depends: did Ryan Dungey really commit an infraction worth a two-spot penalty?  And should Justin Brayton and Blake Baggett take a hit on their performance because of what seemed to be totally random flat tires?  Let's look at it both ways....
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2016 Week 11 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Detroit  (3/20/2016)
We talked a little during the week about how deep the 2016 450SX field is, and that was on display again in Detroit for the qualifying.  Look at Blake Baggett, who qualified 13th, which for him seems quite low at first glance.  But who should he have been faster than?  Weston Peick or Justin Bogle, maybe?  Other than that it goes Musquin / Anderson / Tomac / Canard / Dungey / Grant (OK, that's hard to call) / Reed / Seely / Roczen (I mean, Roczen is in 10th) / Brayton.  None of those are guys that you'd expect Baggett to absolutely qualify ahead of.  That's how a guy like him, who's supposed to be in the hunt for podiums every week, qualifies 13th....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 11 at Detroit  (3/18/2016)
The major mover in this week's predictions is Marvin Musquin, from 7th up to 5th.  It took another great result from Musquin combined with a DNF from Chad Reed.  Otherwise it's a fairly tame update to the 450SX predictions....
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Short Track: Toronto "This-Week" Predictions Review  (3/17/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 10 in Toronto? Well, outside of the Justin Bogle pile-up, things went pretty close to what was predicted:
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Short Track: Deepest Supercross Field -- is it 2016?  (3/17/2016)
Based on a twitter question from Bob (@bobfromomaha) wondering "What is the deepest field in history?", we're going to look and see what kind of numbers are out there that might provide some context, at least in terms of Supercross....
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Short Track: Update On Passing Index  (3/15/2016)
So far, the "Passing Index" (I was going to call it something along the lines of "excitement rating", but I was correctly admonished by commenter "Jason" that passing does not necessarily equal excitement) has simply looked at the amount of position changes per race. But some races are longer than others, which likely leads to more passing....
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2016 Week 10 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Toronto  (3/13/2016)
Some entertaining racing in Toronto, especially up front in the Top 5 and even in the next 5. Although Justing Bolge's mistake and the ensuing pile-up put a bit of a downer on the race for many. But the real excitement (not really) is that the stadium-effect prophecy for Justin Brayton and Jake Weimer proved correct! Well, maybe, but we'll address the predictions and stadium-specific adjustment below....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 10 at Toronto  (3/10/2016)
While #1 and #2 remain the same -- Ryan Dungey and Ken Roczen as you might expect -- Eli Tomac squeezed past Jason Anderson into 3rd place in this week's update to the 450SX predictions...
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Short Track: Daytona "This-Week" Predictions Review  (3/9/2016)
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 9 in Daytona? Something of a return to normal, although it sounds like there were two things about the race that had major effects: the track was narrow and didn't offer many opportunities for passing, so where riders emerged from the first turn had a major impact on where they finished...
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Effects of Stadiums for Supercross Riders  (3/9/2016)
This gets brought up fairly often: "Rider ABC always rides well at location XYZ". I think we all take statements like these with a grain of salt, but I think we'd mostly agree that there's some merit to this, so let's take a look...
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2016 Week 9 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Daytona  (3/5/2016)
...At Daytona, though, Tomac and Dungey were nearly equal, with Tomac having a negligible advantage of 4 thousandths of a second per lap, on average....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 9 at Daytona  (3/4/2016)
The main change for the 450SX predictions going into Daytona is Jason Anderson sliding in above Eli Tomac. Now that we're nearly halfway through the season, the 2016 performance is weighing heavily enough against the prior seasons....
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Starting Spot vs Finishing Position  (3/3/2016)
In a lot of ways it's a simple question: how much does the starting spot* matter for determining where the rider finishes? But, it's an important one, and one where correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation....
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2016 Week 8 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Atlanta  (2/27/2016)
While Musquin didn't get the race win that would have been a major achievement, he has shown over the past several weeks that he belongs in the conversation. Our preseason predictions had him at #7, and I remember at least one comment I received was that 7th was too high and Musquin wouldn't be a factor. Now Musquin's prediction actually looks like it might be correct....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 8 at Atlanta  (2/26/2016)
Not a lot of changes, but Ken Roczen narrows the gap slightly, and Chad Reed's Week 7 result was bad enough to drop him below Cole Seely into 6th....
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Rider Profile: Trey Canard -- What's his ceiling?  (2/25/2016)
While Trey Canard made several Loretta Lynn's finals in his amateur years, his first notable result was in 2004, in his age 14 season, where he finished 2nd overall in the Mini Sr. class.  You can see from his % Overall graph that Canard didn't really stand out, compared to the average rider, until that age-14 season....
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How Much Slowing? -- Follow Up #2  (2/23/2016)
Some notable results did happen outside of the two stars, though.  I would say Jason Anderson had his most consistent night.  He qualified with the 8th best lap (not great), then won his heat race.  He got a reasonably good holeshot, in 6th, then eventually caught Cole Seely in lap 15, securing a 3rd place finish.  I was curious if Anderson, in his late-charging fashion, was closing the gap with Roczen/Dungey of the last half or last third of the race, but that wasn't really the case.  In laps 15 and 16, Anderson was faster than the average of Roczen and Dungey, but in all the other laps Anderson was slower....
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2016 Week 7 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Arlington  (2/21/2016)
Some notable results did happen outside of the two stars, though.  I would say Jason Anderson had his most consistent night.  He qualified with the 8th best lap (not great), then won his heat race.  He got a reasonably good holeshot, in 6th, then eventually caught Cole Seely in lap 15, securing a 3rd place finish.  I was curious if Anderson, in his late-charging fashion, was closing the gap with Roczen/Dungey of the last half or last third of the race, but that wasn't really the case.  In laps 15 and 16, Anderson was faster than the average of Roczen and Dungey, but in all the other laps Anderson was slower....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 7 at Arlington  (2/18/2016)
Not hard to guess the current state of affairs: Ryan Dungey is on top, with a growing lead over Ken Roczen at #2. Jason Anderson keeps performing well, and he has crept past Chad Reed. Trey Canard rebounded in his first week back on the track, but missing two weeks has handicapped him enough that he could only jump up two spots in terms of his season-long prediction.
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2016 Week 6 - By-The-Numbers Recap: San Diego 2  (2/16/2016)
Pretty ho-hum race, in a lot of ways, with no major stories.  But I wonder if that is the story of the week: watching the race, there wasn't much action -- no one was doing almost any passing, except for Jason Anderson (of course).
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update going into Week 6: San Diego 2  (2/12/2016)
This week, for the first time we'll also have a "this week" ranking. It's still very basic -- a much more involved ranking is in the works -- but we'll get to that. First, the updated full-season prediction:

How much slowing? -- Follow Up  (2/10/2016)
We took a look yesterday at how much do riders slow down throughout the race? While determining "WHY" is harder to do, we can at least look at how much they slow down, both on an individual level and as an average for all riders. Based on a comment/question from KICKERMAN360 (hope you don't mind me quoting you), "Would be interesting to see how some other riders like Milsaps or Seely or even Alessi who are kinda known for dropping off pretty massively after the half way point", I'm going to do the same exercise for a few more riders.">how much do riders slow down throughout the race? While determining "WHY" is harder to do, we can at least look at how much they slow down, both on an individual level and as an average for all riders. Based on a comment/question from KICKERMAN360 (hope you don't mind me quoting you), "Would be interesting to see how some other riders like Milsaps or Seely or even Alessi who are kinda known for dropping off pretty massively after the half way point", I'm going to do the same exercise for a few more riders....
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How Much Do Riders Slow Down Throughout A 450SX Race?  (2/9/2016)
It's a given that as the race goes from Lap 1 to Lap 20, the riders slow down.  Some of that is due to getting tired, and some from the track getting torn up.  Some of that is due to riding conservatively because they can't catch the person in front of them and/or they don't fear getting caught from behind.  That much is clear, but what I want to know is how much do riders slow down throughout the race?  How does that compare for the top riders, say Ryan Dungey vs Ken Roczen?  I'd also be interested in Eli Tomac (coming off an injury), Jason Anderson (seems to start slow and finish strong), and Chad Reed, among others.  Also, do the riders tend to put it in cruise control when they've got a big enough lead, riding a bit slower than if they were chasing the leader -- and can we see it in their lap times?...
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2016 Week 5 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Glendale  (2/7/2016)
...But out of the gates, Dungey wasn't quick enough off the line. Roczen was, taking 3rd after the first turn, then quickly into 2nd at the 180 right after. Dungey got stuck in a pack before the first turn, and opened up in 12th. By the time Dungey could get his footing and move up to 8th, Roczen had passed Millsaps into 1st and opened up a 2+ second lead on everyone else. From that point, there was nothing Dungey or the other potential challengers Eli Tomac, Jason Anderson, or Chad Reed could do....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update after week 4 at Oakland  (2/4/2016)
...Eli Tomac edges out Chad Reed for #3, but they're in a virtual dead heat. That won't last for long if Tomac can't fix his problems off the line...Even though the projections didn't have a lot of movement, there's still plenty to look forward to in terms of predictions at Glendale. It seems like Dungey's unbeatable -- Can Roczen get a win?...
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Rider Profile: Eli Tomac -- Can he rebound again?  (2/2/2016)
...In the first 4 races of 2016, Tomac's starting position is down to 8.7 -- more than two spots below his 2015 average....
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2016 Week 4 - By-The-Numbers Recap: Oakland  (1/31/2016)
Prior to Oakland, Roczen's starts had been to blame: 17th/6th/9th -- each race he's caught up with remarkable pace, but he'd been too far back to really challenge Dungey. But at Oakland, Roczen opened up in 3rd, and after passing Marvin Musquin in Lap 6, all Roczen had to do was catch Dungey. So much for conventional wisdom -- not only could Roczen not catch Dungey, instead Dungey extended his lead slowly but surely throughout the race. Of the first 18 laps, Roczen was only faster than Dungey in two laps -- Lap 4 and Lap 8. All other 16 laps, Dungey had a better time....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update after week 3 at A2  (1/28/2016)
What's new in the 450XS predictions? Compared to last week, the big mover is Chad Reed, who again tore up the course. He's now projected to finish 4th, which is 1 spot above his preseason prediction but 3 spots above last week's....
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James Stewart and the rest of 2016 Supercross season  (1/27/2016)
Word on the street is that James Stewart is going to be back on his bike in Oakland for Week 4, ready to put up some points on the 2016 450SX leaderboard. While we're all on the edge of our seats, waiting to see if he does ride and if he still has it, let's do some estimating with numbers....If we accept these assumptions and that Stewart is looking at something like a 20% win percentage for the rest of 2016, what are his chances at winning at least one race? First, his probability of winning any number of races, from 1 win to 14 wins:
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2016 Week 3 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Anaheim 2  (1/24/2016)
Davi Millsaps was looking pretty good coming into the Main Event. His practice time was good (#8) and he qualified high, winning Heat 2, having the fastest single lap of anyone in the Heats. Then got the hole shot, so I started to wonder if he could turn in a podium finish. Unfortunately for him, he was quickly....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update after week 2 at SDSX1  (1/22/2016)
Two weeks in the books, and we have several adjustments again for the weekly update.   The main changes are due to injury, with some minor shuffling at the top.   Some bigger items that we're still waiting on: how quickly can James Stewart get back to form and will Jason Anderson continue to challenge for one of the top spots every week?   Hopefully we'll get some answers at Anaheim 2!!...
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Rider Profile: Jason Anderson -- Nature-Vs-Nurture?  (1/21/2016)
Jason Anderson has gone from 450SX "dark horse" to legitimate contender in a matter of two weeks by winning one race and finishing near the top of the other -- though it might be an exaggeration to proclaim that he came out of nowhere.   The 22-year-old (22 years & 11 months, mind you) was catching many eyes leading up to the beginning of the season with many saying his speed had improved enough for him to be a potential wildcard and to reach several podiums....
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Week 2 -- San Diego 1 -- By-The-Numbers Recap  (1/17/2016) --Update: Lap times chart added at 9:57--
....Chad Reed impressed again, and he currently sits in 4th.   That's one spot above where he landed in the preseason predictions, but the big question for him is staying healthy and holding up through the wear and tear of the full 17 weeks.   He mentioned post-race that the comments about his age and his expected decline had gotten tiresome.   In the preseason projection, his age did cost him 2 spots in our ranking -- he would have edged out Trey Canard and Eli Tomac for 3rd if age weren't a factor.   But it is.  Let's see how the full season goes for Reed, but if he outperforms where we projected him, at least his continued success against the doubters will be a great story....
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2016 Supercross Predictions - 450SX Update after Anaheim 1  (1/14/2016)
The prediction is back!   Not a lot of changes compared to the pre-season prediction, but there's only been one race, so...   The biggest changes you could probably guess (i.e., Jason Anderson made a huge leap), but we break down the major changes below, including notes on the sturdy top 4 and on James Stewart.
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Anaheim Surprises in 2016 Week 1 450SX  (1/10/2016)
OK, the Supercross opening week drama in Anaheim gave the 2016 predictions their first test.   Let's run through the main surprises compared to those MotoXGraphs predictions.   Certainly the runaway winner was the main surprise, but we'll get to that at the end.
James Stewart
An unfortunate crash in Lap 1 that was some part bad luck (James Stewart veered from the outside line at just the wrong time) and some part loss of control by—of all people, usually superhuman Ryan Dungey—left James Stewart with a severe concussion and out of the Main Event.   Before the crash, though, Stewart looked like one of the better riders on the day:
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Visually recapping the 2015 Pro MX season   (1/8/2016)
Now that we're moving on to 2016 and Supercross this weekend, let's take a look back at 2015 in the form of graphs. Here is the entire 450 field, earning points week-by-week:
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2016 Supercross Predictions - Top 20 in 450SX   (1/8/2016)
Want to get a data-based prediction of who'll finish at the top of 2016 Supercross 450 season? Then welcome to MotoXGraphs: trying to get smarter about following motocross. Some of the names will be exactly where you expect, but some will probably surprise you. Let's get right to it:
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