Supercross "This Week" Predictions -- New Jersey 2017
As usual, the updated 2017 Supercross Prediction puts the whole season in perspective, while the "This Week" rankings look at the riders' perceived ability (aka "true talent") as well as taking into account injuries and the riders' history at the upcoming track.
**For those not familiar, a brief explanation of the components that factor into the "This Week" rankings:
The standard MotoXGraphs prediction of rider performance, based on the current and prior seasons, weighing recent results more heavily. It differs from the "Full Season" prediction in that it is not worrying about the rider's current point standings (which obviously are a crucial part of the full season prediction), only about their current ability.
Attempts to account for riders competing at less than 100% due to injury. Full research behind the Injury Adjustment can be found in The MX Book (or eBook). While this adjustment is only an estimate (what predictions aren't?), the purpose of the Injury Adjustment is less about trying to make an exact prediction and is more about indicating that a rider is recovering from injury so the viewer can take that into account at whatever scale he or she chooses.
Provides an increase or decrease in expected points for the riders based on their historical performance (over the past 4 years, where applicable) in the upcoming city/stadium. Also validated by research in The MX Book ( or eBook). The track/location effect has a slightly muted nature in Supercross compared to outdoors since the tracks are not exactly the same in Supercross sites from year to year (or even within the same year for sites like Angel Stadium or Petco where there are often multiple races in one season).
Here are the predictions for the 450 class this weekend.
Just like in the overall predictions, Eli Tomac takes over the #1 spot. Also, Tomac has had more success at MetLife Stadium than Ryan Dungey, which widens the gap a little bit after the Track Adjustment. Dungey's worst finish of 2016 (albeit 4th, so not that bad) was in New Jersey. Tomac, on the other hand, has finished 2nd, 1st, and 2nd in East Rutherford over 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Cole Seely also has a large positive Track Adjustment, moving him into 4th over Jason Anderson -- despite Seely's just returning from a few weeks off due to injury. Seely finished 3rd at MetLife in 2015 and 2016, which was tied for his second-best result of 2016. In 2016, Anderson finished 6th in East Rutherford, which was his fourth-worst finish; in 2015 he finished 9th, which was almost exactly average for him.