The preliminary 450 prediction went up Friday, and
now here's the corresponding preview of what the predictions will look like for the 250 Pro class in 2016's Motocross Championship:
Preliminary 250MX Pro 2016 Pre-Season Predictions
Just like with the 450 Pros, the list is preliminary because riders are still releasing news about where they're riding, delays because of injuries, whether they're riding pro or amateur, and for some whether they're in 450 or 250. Soon we'll release full predictions for the 450 and 250 pros and some of the Amateur classes. I mentioned in the 450 prelim that I hoped a season-long injury prediction would be coming, and now I believe I've got something fairly reliable, so that will be part of it.
Austin Forkner - the scouts say he's a phenom ready to take the Pro circuit by storm, but the numbers don't see it. While Tristan Charboneau just misses the Top 20, Forkner is not really all that close. In fact, Josh Osby, another first-timer in 250 Pros, gets a better prediction than Forkner.
Arnaud Tonus gets a very nice projection, based on just one MX pro outdoor race. His prediction is regressed toward the mean (i.e. the middle of the pack, in this case) to account for this, but seeing as he had several 250 Supercross results in this range, I think we're sticking with this prediction.
Justin Hill drops down from about 7th to 12th because he will miss several weeks at the beginning of the season due to injury.