Short Track: Indy "This-Week" Predictions Review
4/13/2016
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 13 in Indianapolis? The estimates for Indy tied last week's performance for the most predictions to hit exactly (5). An additional 3 were off by just 1 spot:
In my defense, some of the bigger misses were at least mentioned as likely being off because the injury penalty was "probably a little low for Justin Barcia since he's still getting back to form after missing 9 weeks, and probably too high for Pourcel who has only missed two weeks with a fairly minor (I think) neck injury". Broc Tickle falls into that same category -- coming back from a long layoff due to injury, which seems to merit a larger downward adjustment.
That still leaves Eli Tomac, who according to many has checked out, chalking it up to a lost season of Supercross -- he was 6 spots worse than predicted. Maybe it's that he's lost a bit of focus; maybe it's that he never really adjusted to the new setup for 2016; maybe it's nothing.
As for the Location adjustment, we included many adjustments for riders that had notable history at Lucas Oil Stadium, though they were generally fairly minor. Jake Weimer had the biggest, and his actual performance mirrored the adjustment:
He was expected to finish 1.3 spots worse than his prediction (before the Location Adjustment), and he finished 6 spots worse (15th vs 9th). So, the direction of the prediction (worse than expected) matched the direction of the result (worse than expected), even if the magnitude was off by several spots. The other predictions were mixed in terms of what actually happened, but the adjustments were pretty minor (none even as big as an entire spot), so hard to draw much from that.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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