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Supercross 2017: Phoenix -- Predictions Review

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How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 3 at Phoenix?  You'd think that with all the craziness that went down at Phoenix, the predictions would be thrown into chaos.  You'd only be half right.  Yes, there are many big misses, but overall 10 out of the 20 predictions were within 2 spots.  That would be just over half if you forgive the miss on Weston Peick, who injured himself in qualifying.

Eli Tomac surprised nearly everyone with his dominant win, but the predictions had him in 3rd, which I'd guess is higher than most would have projected.  Of course Marvin Musquin and Jason Anderson were big misses, off by 7 and 6 spots, respectively.  Same for Chad Reed, who put in his best race in the past year, finishing 2nd instead of 9th.

In the middle of the pack, things fell mostly in line.  Quietly, Dean Wilson, Josh Grant, Broc Tickle, and Malcolm Stewart fell just outside the Top 10.  And the one exact pick was Jimmy Albertson in 20th.

Stadium/Track Adjustments
Since the Stadium/Track Adjustment is still a bit of a work in progress (The MX Book goes through it in detail, with encouraging conclusions), I highlight the major ones each week to see if the riders' finishing spots were better or worse at the Supercross stadium -- that is, in line with the prediction or not.

There weren't any substantial Stadium/Track Adjustments for the 450's since the University Of Phoenix Stadium had only 1 prior Supercross race.  I will list the 3 biggest positive adjustments, even though they were small:

They are all in the correct direction, if a bit too low.  Each of Davi Millsaps, Eli Tomac, and Justin Brayton were predicted to do better at the University Of Phoenix Stadium than at the average track.  Each of them did much better than their prediction before the Track Adjustment.  The adjustments were off in terms of magnitude, but each one predicted the rider's result in the correct direction.  The 4th largest adjustment, not listed, was for Jason Anderson -- he did worse than usual, so it was not in the correct direction for him.  

Despite not being the fastest finisher last week, Ryan Dungey will still be predicted #1 for next week's race in Oakland.  But with a poor result from Musquin and a great one from Tomac, will Eli be the clear pick for 2nd?  We'll find out on Thursday (or maybe Friday).

Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47   :::   As always – Feedback welcomed

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