Short Track: Daytona "This-Week" Predictions Review
3/9/2016
How did the "This-Week" predictions do for Week 9 in Daytona? Something of a return to normal, although it sounds like there were two things about the race that had major effects: the track was narrow and didn't offer many opportunities for passing, so where riders emerged from the first turn had a major impact on where they finished, and there was a jumble of bikes right at the start, which Tomac, Dungey, and Musquin escaped from but many others (notably Pourcel) didn't, and that threw things off a little bit right from the beginning.
The predictions versus actual results for Daytona:
Notable misses from the prediction:
Chad Reed (predicted 3rd), finished 12th - complained about the track and seemed out of sorts.
Cole Seely (predicted 4th), finished 10th - was in the last few riders coming out of the first section.
Eli Tomac (predicted 6th), finished 1st - if we'd known beforehand that he's been 2.5 spots better than average in his prior races at Daytona, we might have bumped up his prediction a little bit. Also, Tomac was dinged in the prediction for being in the "recovering from injury" category, but it seems like he's back to 100% or close to it, so we'll remove the injury adjustment for next week.
Davi Millsaps (predicted 9th), finished 19th - was running in 5th before a crash.
Christophe Pourcel (predicted 13th), finished 8th - if his new normal is Top 10, it might take the numbers a while to adjust and "believe" that his major improvement is real.
Justin Bogle (predicted 16th), finished 11th - as a rookie in 450SX, Bogle's predictions are subject to more variance. If his true talent is around 8th (as in Atlanta) or 11th (as in Daytona), then it will take a little while for the numbers to catch up (his previous finishes were 13th, 22nd, 15th, and 18th), similar to the situation for Pourcel.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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