2017 Supercross Week 3 -- By-The-Numbers Recap: Anaheim 2
1/23/2017
How did the "This Week" predictions do for Supercross week 3 at Anaheim 2? Well, there was one MAJOR deviation that we all know about--Ken Roczen's crash and injury--plus Jason Anderson got himself disqualified, knocking out another likely Top 5 rider. The ripple effect carried all the way from 1 through 20:
Only 2 riders were exactly right, 2 more were off by 1 spot, and another 2 were off by 2 spots. Deviations like Justin Bogle (predicted 12th but crashed out during his Heat Race) and Josh Grant (predicted 16th but finished well ahead of that, in 6th) wouldn't have been avoided if Roczen/Anderson had made it through the Main Event. Same is true for Eli Tomac, who only managed to finish 8th despite the absence of two likely Top 5 guys.
But, just to see how things would have looked if Roczen and Anderson had finished closer to their normal positions, what happens if we remove these two from the predictions (sliding most riders up 2 spots)? Naturally, it looks much closer:
In this (imaginary) case, there are 3 correct and 6 off by 1 spot, plus another 3 off by 2.
Malcolm Stewart's prediction was off by 3 spots (or by 5 if you use the no KR/JA version), which I think is actually remarkably close. He had no pro 450 data to work from, so 3 spots seems about right, and the location adjustment (see below) worked out for him. He's got some work to do to reach 10th as in the original pre-season Supercross predictions, but it's within the realm of possibility.
Stadium/Track Adjustments
Since the Stadium/Track Adjustment is still a bit of a work in progress (The MX Book goes through it in detail, with encouraging conclusions), I highlight the major ones each week to see if the riders' finishing spots were better or worse at the Supercross stadium -- that is, in line with the prediction or not. There were 3 substantial Stadium/Track Adjustments for the 450's at Anaheim 2:
They are all in the correct direction, if a bit too low.
- Weston Peick was predicted to do 1.8 points better at Angel Stadium, and he did 5 points better (predicted at 11 before the track adjustment, earned 16). That's +2 (predicted effect) vs +5 (actual effect), so the adjustment was close to correct.
- Malcolm Stewart was predicted to do 1.9 points worse at Angel Stadium than at the average Supercross track. He earned 3 points, compared to 7 points in his prediction (before the track adjustment), which means he did 4 points worse. Again, the adjustment was close to correct.
- Jake Weimer was predicted to do 2.2 points better at Angel Stadium, and he did 4 points better (predicted at 2 points before the track adjustment, earned 6). So for him, the adjustment was pretty close.
The predictions for Week 3 got a little wacky due to the tragic crash from Roczen and the bonehead move from Anderson (regardless of if he was right or wrong). Heading into Arizona, the predictions for Week 4 will look a lot different, with (spoiler alert) a new #1 who'll be the heavy favorite.
Posted by: SagehenMacGyver47 ::: As always – Feedback welcomed
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